This Blog was intended to be about "I.T." issues in general, but has become overtaken by the NBN.
Posts and Comments have been moved to a dedicated Blog...
Please update any feeds you might have, assuming you want.
I'll be removing the NBN posts from this Blog down the line.
Thirty Years in I.T. Theories, Ideas, Opinions.... Leveraging knowledge of the past to understand now. @SteveJCbr & stevej.cbr@gmail.com
2013/06/02
2013/05/26
Software Engineering: Failed profession or not? Windows vs Linux kernel
A fascinating read by a Windows Kernel developer about the social dynamics of Linux vs Windows kernels.
2013/05/25
NBN: Coalition Fibre to the Node isn't pure-digital broadband, isn't secure, isn't meant to last
Not only is the Coalition's Fibre to the Node (FTTN) plan to share two mutually-interfering networks, over existing copper, more complex and expensive that it need be, it also flags they aren't designing it for longevity. Implicit in this design choice is "we're building it to throw away, soon." i.e. with a 10-15 year, or less, economic life.
The network design can never be optimum for either phone or digital/broadband, the combination is more complex, expensive and lower reliability than pure-digital and is missing two critical network design element: it doesn't follow the existing NBN design (standard device interfaces, end-end control & L2 Bitstreams) but ignores that engineering designs can only be optimised to for one thing.
The network design can never be optimum for either phone or digital/broadband, the combination is more complex, expensive and lower reliability than pure-digital and is missing two critical network design element: it doesn't follow the existing NBN design (standard device interfaces, end-end control & L2 Bitstreams) but ignores that engineering designs can only be optimised to for one thing.
2013/05/10
NBN: Coalition Fine Print - 1.1M houses WONT get 25Mbps.
When is a guarantee not a guarantee? When it's a Political statement.
The "minimum" guaranteed speed excludes one in seven (13%) premises covered by the Coalition's DSL-FTTN: or 1.1M premises will be "NOT happy, Mal!"
While the "target" is 10%, that's across all 11.3M fixed-lines, including the 24% premises served by Fibre. The 1.1M excepted premises will all come from the 8.968M premises covered by FTTN.
The "minimum" guaranteed speed excludes one in seven (13%) premises covered by the Coalition's DSL-FTTN: or 1.1M premises will be "NOT happy, Mal!"
While the "target" is 10%, that's across all 11.3M fixed-lines, including the 24% premises served by Fibre. The 1.1M excepted premises will all come from the 8.968M premises covered by FTTN.
2013/05/01
NBN: The real tragedy of the non-debate - Politicisation.
This tweet highlights the public cost of the Opposition's relentless negativity:
the NBN is an expensive waste with a low take up rate in its current form, paid for with borrowed money.Both Conservatives and Left-wing now agree that Universal broadband access is a worthy public good and necessary national infrastructure. Nobody disagrees that Fibre is the superior technology for fixed-line data and through the normal operation of technology and economics will some day replace copper for this purpose. The two sides now only differ in when and how we get there.
2013/04/15
NBN: Correcting the Record on the Coalition NBN Plan
This is a collection of Omissions, inaccuracies or misleading statement in the Coalition's NBN Policy documents.
Please Note:
Please Note:
- The comments here are concise and assume a more technical knowledge than "an ordinary reader".
- I'm NOT supporting either Political Party or their Policy.
- Both Plans have deep, concerning issues.
- Both side of Politics are making unfounded statements and questionable promises.
- This piece is NOT analysis or recommendation for or against the Coalition Plan. It only seeks to layout facts that can be checked and confirmed on the public record.
MSFT: A Big Day - stock downgraded on back of PC sales 'turmoil' (15% down) and mobile offerings 'underwhelm'
This is a big day for Microsoft: it's stock has been downgraded to 'hold' from 'buy' on back of PC sales 'turmoil' (15% down) and they're criticised for "underwhelming" performance in new mobile markets.
2013/04/13
MSFT: The Application that dare not Speak Its Name
There have been recent reports about the decline in global PC sales. Laptops replaced Desktops are the most common "PC" platform 5 or more years ago. What impact on the market will this have?
2013/04/08
NBN: Turnbull pre-releases Policy to News Ltd, engages Full-FUD drive.
News Ltd is spruiking for the Coalition again, spreading Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt far and wide.
It's complete B/S for anyone, including NBN Co and Conroy, to say they know the exact project cost or completion schedule, either "on-time, on-budget" or a gross exaggeration of 2-3 times over budget, or even as Turnbull has been claiming, "it is a failing project".
I'm sorry, but "Failing projects" don't deliver anything, the NBN Co work is progressing and progressing well. The ALP and NBN Co are doing a lousy job of selling their performance and informing the public of their progress. MT would be right to criticise there.
It's complete B/S for anyone, including NBN Co and Conroy, to say they know the exact project cost or completion schedule, either "on-time, on-budget" or a gross exaggeration of 2-3 times over budget, or even as Turnbull has been claiming, "it is a failing project".
I'm sorry, but "Failing projects" don't deliver anything, the NBN Co work is progressing and progressing well. The ALP and NBN Co are doing a lousy job of selling their performance and informing the public of their progress. MT would be right to criticise there.
2013/04/04
NBN: The Coalition has it backwards - it should be pro-Fibre.
In 2001, Prime Minister, Howard was seen by his own party, as "mean and tricky". Not only that, but they had things backwards, summarised on "7:30" as:
The Government was "mean and tricky, out of touch and not listening" and it had deserted its own voter base, especially small business and self-funded retirees.If Fibre-to-Business was not a good idea, then why did the Coalition not block a $23 million project to upgrade 252 electoral offices to "Ultra-fast Internet Cables"? This is the very worst hypocrisy by a cynical cohort of politicians living high on the publicly funded hog: "I'm alright, Jack, blow you!".
Messers Abbot, Turnbull, Fletcher and Joyce are repeating this same wrong-headed blindness and being allowed to get away with it, unchallenged, by their own constituency and the Labor Party.
If you ask THE question about the NBN, "Who Benefits, Right Now?", then the answer is plain and unequivocal. it is NOT the urban dwelling middle-class who benefit. It's the Coalition's heartland:
2013/03/14
NBN: CommsDay vs ABC.
Media Watch pointed to the CommsDay "riposte" to the ABC's definitive article listing the issues around NBN. [Part 2 of article]. Written 14-march-2013.
Here's my analysis of Grahame Lynch's "50 problems". Commsday comments in this colour.
[18-Mar: Apologies to Grahame for misspelling his name]
For completeness, some disclosure: I don't work for, or hold shares in, a Telco, NBN Co or one of their suppliers or contractors, nor am I a member or supporter of any Political Party. Neither do I support the Labor NBN plan over the Coalition's unannounced NBN. I hold the position that either Policy with deliver better broadband access. My interest is for a clear and informed debate on what I consider the defining Technology of the 21st Century for national Business Productivity and Competitiveness.
Here's my analysis of Grahame Lynch's "50 problems". Commsday comments in this colour.
[18-Mar: Apologies to Grahame for misspelling his name]
For completeness, some disclosure: I don't work for, or hold shares in, a Telco, NBN Co or one of their suppliers or contractors, nor am I a member or supporter of any Political Party. Neither do I support the Labor NBN plan over the Coalition's unannounced NBN. I hold the position that either Policy with deliver better broadband access. My interest is for a clear and informed debate on what I consider the defining Technology of the 21st Century for national Business Productivity and Competitiveness.
2013/02/26
Unsolicited Advise to a classmate
I've never been a politician, managed a large budget or run even a moderate sized project, so why do I have the hubris to offer some unsolicited advice to a newly minted I.T. Minister, to whom by accident, I was once briefly a classmate?
Rejecting these thoughts "because nobody else is doing them" is an option, though not a great reason.
Rejecting them "because they're too expensive" is a judgement call, but has to be measured against "Compared to What?".
Doing nothing will cost you a whole bunch, you've already have the report on that.
The core arguments in support of my observations are:
Rejecting these thoughts "because nobody else is doing them" is an option, though not a great reason.
Rejecting them "because they're too expensive" is a judgement call, but has to be measured against "Compared to What?".
Doing nothing will cost you a whole bunch, you've already have the report on that.
The core arguments in support of my observations are:
- How important to the current and future BackOffice and FrontOffice operations of your Government is I.T.? I suggest that the machinery of Government cannot operate without it I.T. systems, not simply ineffectively, but like airlines, not at all.
- There is an internal consistency in what I propose, derived from one of the toughest businesses around. The challenge is not "will this work", but "how can it be made to work for us".
2013/01/27
National Security: Prevention and Strengthening Defences missing from Gillard Strategy
The Gillard government has released a new National Security strategy specifically including Cyber-Security. It updates a 2009 strategy released by the Rudd government:
Because what is outlined is incomplete:
Strong and Secure: A Strategy for Australia's National SecurityThe strategy is strong, competent and wrong...
Because what is outlined is incomplete:
They have failed to address the root cause of cyber-attacks: vulnerable and error-filled Operating Systems and poor Application Software. Fix the weakness, stop the compromises before they happen, spend the money on where it can do good, not support "Business As Usual".Cleaning up the mess and containing damage after the fact is exactly wrong: it's attempting to catch the horse after its has bolted.
2013/01/26
Security: Computer Security for Business Continuity in Healthcare
If you run a Healthcare-realted Business, things changed in the last 6 months...
Ransomware is set to boom [0] and cyber-security is now part of our National Security Plan.
Businesses now have to secure their computers and data just as they secure their premises and goods.
It's not optional, fail to do so and you will go out of business, just when is the question.
Ask yourself this: "If my computers were destroyed, how long could I continue the business? At reduced capacity or at all?", then act accordingly.
i.e. Does anyone around the world see you as a high-value, exploitable target?
Especially those in low-income countries with employment problems: poverty corrupts, not just power or the love of money.
The Internet is defined by its explosive growth: A few For-Profit hackers have noticed Business Ransomware is an ideal way to monetise remote computer attacks & exploits.
The numbers of these attacks will now double every few months as word gets around, new "toolkits" are sold to them and they ramp up their activities.
Every business that can raise $5,000 and relies on its systems and data for daily operations is now in their sights. These people have no morals, ethics or compassion in their work: they want your money and don't care about the damage they cause or the impact of their actions. Appeals to them will fall on deaf ears. Neither believe that a single ransom payment will be the last you'll hear of them. Why would you trust the word of criminals who've already broken in and callously damaged your systems?
Ransomware is set to boom [0] and cyber-security is now part of our National Security Plan.
Businesses now have to secure their computers and data just as they secure their premises and goods.
It's not optional, fail to do so and you will go out of business, just when is the question.
Ask yourself this: "If my computers were destroyed, how long could I continue the business? At reduced capacity or at all?", then act accordingly.
i.e. Does anyone around the world see you as a high-value, exploitable target?
Especially those in low-income countries with employment problems: poverty corrupts, not just power or the love of money.
The Internet is defined by its explosive growth: A few For-Profit hackers have noticed Business Ransomware is an ideal way to monetise remote computer attacks & exploits.
The numbers of these attacks will now double every few months as word gets around, new "toolkits" are sold to them and they ramp up their activities.
Every business that can raise $5,000 and relies on its systems and data for daily operations is now in their sights. These people have no morals, ethics or compassion in their work: they want your money and don't care about the damage they cause or the impact of their actions. Appeals to them will fall on deaf ears. Neither believe that a single ransom payment will be the last you'll hear of them. Why would you trust the word of criminals who've already broken in and callously damaged your systems?
2013/01/11
Security: Healthcare systems are "soft-targets": the Next Big Exploit
Previous pieces on Security:
There are two ways to monetise e-Health Records:
- NBN: the business case for 100-1000Mbps symmetric for SOHO & SME
- Security: The Massive hole in the PCEHR system
- Cyberwar: paper-tiger or real threat?
- NBN, stuxnet and Security: It's worse than you can believe
- Cyberwar: Bush/O'Bama authorised Stuxnet
- The NBN and defending against Cyber warfare attacks.
- The NBN as an Essential Strategic Defence for Cyber-warfare.
- CyberWars, Governments and Internet Security
- Why new Secure Internet solutions are technically Hard
There are two ways to monetise e-Health Records:
- Identity Theft. Huge amount of high-quality info. Medicare Cards are worth 'points' as Govt. ID's.
- Ransomware: healthcare can't operate without its data and they print money by the truckload.
2013/01/04
Storage: Smaller is better in Hard Disks
I upgraded my TimeMachine ® drive two days ago on my Apple Desktop [2009 Intel Mac Mini, OS/X Snow Leopard].
I went to a local office supply chain-store and bought a Seagate USB3 drive for $90, replacing my older 'Buffalo' USB2 drive, maybe 12-18 months old. While the Mac Mini only has USB2 ports and I can realise the higher bus speed, it will work on newer computers as well.
My new drive is 1TB, 2.5", covered by the statutory 12mth warranty. Better to replace without pressure, than when things are broken... The old drive can go on the shelf as a long-term roll-back.
This is a trick I learnt from a friend with a number of Macbooks and iMacs:
The consumer drive variants (not 'enterprise', designed for servers) are built to be mobile (laptops & portable devices) and so are more robust, shock-resilient, etc.
But that's not the 'secret sauce': it's power consumption, and its relative, heat dissipation.
2.5" drives can be fully powered by USB 2, in the normal/correct specification [not the 10W+ that the iPad demands, but well under 5W, even 2.5W]. They run cool, quietly, on low-power.
Not needing a "wall-wart" is really important: it can never be lost, never blow up, never "leak mains power" or cause earth-loop problems (my Western Digital 3.5" drive sparks against the frame when I plug it in. Scary.)
There's a reason based in physics for 2.5" drives using a lot less power:
"low performance" 2.5" drives at 5400rpm spin slower than 3.5" drives, mostly7200rpm - a ratio of 1.33:1.
Aerodynamic drag increases with the cube (third power) of speed/rotational rate. The cube of 1.33 is 2.37.
Just these two factors reduce potential power demand by about five times, albeit for one-quarter the space compared to a 4TB 3.5" drive. But 1TB is more than enough to maintain snapshots of my 300GB drive and is a good fit for me.
For the next factor:
Without trying, 2.5" drives use 20 times less power, for only 1/2 to 1/4 the capacity.
For the same capacity but slower spin-rate, they use 10 (ten) times less power,
Four 2.5" drives use just a little less space than a single 3.5" drive [102mm x 140mm x 19-25.4mm] vs [102mm x 147mm x 26.1mm], ignoring connectors.
The Small Form Factor Committee very nicely designed the footprint of each device size to be the same ratio meaning the length of the next smaller size is the width of the current size. If you've ever noticed, you can lay a 2.5" drive sideways across a 3.5" drive. Four 2.5" drives, in 2 stacks of 2, will fit within a box that would hold a single 3.5" drive. Adding connectors is trickier - they are at right-angles to each other in the two form factors.
A side benefit you have 4 sets of independent electronics, buffers and heads working for you.
You get better aggregate throughput and seek performance from 4 smaller drives, OR you can sacrifice 33% of capacity for radically improved fault-resilience and setup RAID-5 over 4 drives.
But 2.5" drives cost around 35-100% more per GB, depending on models.
It depends what value you put on your time and your data...
I think $90/TB vs $75/TB is insignificant compared to the benefits, even for home use.
If its business or professional-use data for a modest drive count, the economics of 2.5" drives are a slam-dunk (or "no-brainer"). If you have petabytes to store, you got other problems to solve.
At this point you might be wondering "If small is good, and much smaller is much better, why don't we have smaller Form Factors in common use?"
We do.
1.75 inch drives are manufactured in volume, but not sold in "computers", only embedded in mobile devices. They are tricky to manufacture with the same problems as making watches.
The Small Form Factor Committee never specified a standard, especially for thickness, of these drives.
There have been previous credible attempts at micro-minature HDD's: around 2000, IBM built the largest capacity "Compact Flash" drive available. It was a hard disk. While they were both highest capacity and best price/MB, they weren't popular with working Professional Photographers - they were too fragile... One of the extreme advantages of solid-state memory, like "Flash", is its robustness, especially when turned off. If you keep static electricity away from them, they can be nearly indestructible. The data will fade away ("Flash" EPROM is not permanent) long before they'll succumb to mechanical damage...
But within a couple of years the market collapsed because real Flash memory overtook them in capacity, price/MB and transfer rate.
Not long after RAID-5 was proposed in 1989, there was a good academic paper that suggested by 2000 we'd have a new type of storage: many single platter 1 inch drives soldered onto boards.
The economics of very small form-factor disk drives turned out never to be compelling.
If nobody is building the drives in volume, the price cannot be competitive with substitutes, like Flash for smaller units and 2.5" and 3.5" drives for larger units.
If there is no demand for a product, then no manufacturer will invest in the R&D and manufacturing facilities to ramp-up to volume production.
It sounds like a chicken-and-egg problem: nobody builds small drives so nobody designs products based on them so there is no reason to build small drives.
But that's not the whole story: drive manufacturers can do the Maths and know their production economics and capabilities very well.
If they thought they could produce rugged, small drives that were cheaper and higher-capacity compared to Flash, then one of them would've tried it. If they'd have made a profit, everyone would've followed, just like the 5.25 inch to 3.5 inch and 3.5 inch to 2.5 inch changeovers.
The stumbling block is per-device manufacturing cost.
Disks are complex mechanical devices, assembled individually to very fine tolerances. Their production costs are dominated by that, not raw materials and the process doesn't scale well with volume. While disk capacity has doubled every year for 15 years, the minimum unit price has either remained the same or risen.
Very small format drives, even in high volume, would, per unit, cost a sizeable fraction of 2.5" or 3.5" drives.
Compact Flash chips, whilst small capacity (1-32Gb) compared to even 2.5 inch drives (1000Gb), are cents per chip to produce and the technology to scale volume production of them is very well known and researched, but more importantly lends itself to scaling up.
Flash current sells for $1-$10/Gb and 32Gb is $10-20 retail, or less. SSD's are more expensive per GB than SD cards and USB Flash memory devices for a number of reasons related to speed, reliability/durability and wear-rate.
No 2.5" drive can be smaller than mid-capacity Flash memory or SSD: no user would buy one.
Or, the smallest 2.5" drives you can sell for $50-$60 are 250GB, or $0.20/GB.
If you could make a very small format disk drive for as little as $30 retail, it has to compete with Flash.
It'd have to be over 128GB to sell, or at least half the capacity of a small 2.5 inch drive or one-eight the size of high-capacity 2.5 inch drives.
Which gives a smallest economic form-factor of 1.25 inch, this year.
Next year, when Flash memory reduces another 30%, it's marginal and the year after, when Flash cost/GB has halved, completely uneconomic. A two year product life is well below the payback period.
There haven't been any discoveries or developments in magnetic disks that will change these economies within 10 years: we won't ever see high volume production of computer drives smaller than 2.5 inch.
Drive Dimensions:
2.5": 70mm x 102mm x 9mm [thickness varies, 7mm to 12.7mm. 15mm for 'enterprise']
3.5": 102mm x 147mm x 26.1mm [std "1-inch" thickness]
Sources:
[http://www.sffcommittee.com/ie/index.html]
[ftp://ftp.seagate.com/sff/8000_PRJ.HTM]
[ftp://ftp.seagate.com/sff/SFF-8200.PDF] 2.5"
[ftp://ftp.seagate.com/sff/SFF-8300.PDF] 3.5"
I went to a local office supply chain-store and bought a Seagate USB3 drive for $90, replacing my older 'Buffalo' USB2 drive, maybe 12-18 months old. While the Mac Mini only has USB2 ports and I can realise the higher bus speed, it will work on newer computers as well.
My new drive is 1TB, 2.5", covered by the statutory 12mth warranty. Better to replace without pressure, than when things are broken... The old drive can go on the shelf as a long-term roll-back.
This is a trick I learnt from a friend with a number of Macbooks and iMacs:
permanently attach an external drive for TimeMachine... Cheap and Effective!2.5" is important.
The consumer drive variants (not 'enterprise', designed for servers) are built to be mobile (laptops & portable devices) and so are more robust, shock-resilient, etc.
But that's not the 'secret sauce': it's power consumption, and its relative, heat dissipation.
2.5" drives can be fully powered by USB 2, in the normal/correct specification [not the 10W+ that the iPad demands, but well under 5W, even 2.5W]. They run cool, quietly, on low-power.
Not needing a "wall-wart" is really important: it can never be lost, never blow up, never "leak mains power" or cause earth-loop problems (my Western Digital 3.5" drive sparks against the frame when I plug it in. Scary.)
There's a reason based in physics for 2.5" drives using a lot less power:
the aerodynamic drag of the platters, the main power consumer that is turned into heat, is affected by 3 factors: number of platters, rotational rate, size of platters.Firstly, they only have 1 or 2 platters, versus 4 (max 5?) you'll find in 3.5" drives.
"low performance" 2.5" drives at 5400rpm spin slower than 3.5" drives, mostly7200rpm - a ratio of 1.33:1.
Aerodynamic drag increases with the cube (third power) of speed/rotational rate. The cube of 1.33 is 2.37.
Just these two factors reduce potential power demand by about five times, albeit for one-quarter the space compared to a 4TB 3.5" drive. But 1TB is more than enough to maintain snapshots of my 300GB drive and is a good fit for me.
For the next factor:
Disk Drive form-factors are related - each size has platters half the area of the larger size, so the diameter/radius ratio is 0.7/1.4 times, the square root...The 3rd factor overshadows all others:
The drag is proportional to the fifth (5th) power of diameter.Just halving platter area, and halving capacity/plater, reduces power needs by another five times.
This ratio for a diameter ratio 0.7/1.41 is 0.18/5.66.
Without trying, 2.5" drives use 20 times less power, for only 1/2 to 1/4 the capacity.
For the same capacity but slower spin-rate, they use 10 (ten) times less power,
Four 2.5" drives use just a little less space than a single 3.5" drive [102mm x 140mm x 19-25.4mm] vs [102mm x 147mm x 26.1mm], ignoring connectors.
The Small Form Factor Committee very nicely designed the footprint of each device size to be the same ratio meaning the length of the next smaller size is the width of the current size. If you've ever noticed, you can lay a 2.5" drive sideways across a 3.5" drive. Four 2.5" drives, in 2 stacks of 2, will fit within a box that would hold a single 3.5" drive. Adding connectors is trickier - they are at right-angles to each other in the two form factors.
A side benefit you have 4 sets of independent electronics, buffers and heads working for you.
You get better aggregate throughput and seek performance from 4 smaller drives, OR you can sacrifice 33% of capacity for radically improved fault-resilience and setup RAID-5 over 4 drives.
But 2.5" drives cost around 35-100% more per GB, depending on models.
It depends what value you put on your time and your data...
I think $90/TB vs $75/TB is insignificant compared to the benefits, even for home use.
If its business or professional-use data for a modest drive count, the economics of 2.5" drives are a slam-dunk (or "no-brainer"). If you have petabytes to store, you got other problems to solve.
At this point you might be wondering "If small is good, and much smaller is much better, why don't we have smaller Form Factors in common use?"
We do.
1.75 inch drives are manufactured in volume, but not sold in "computers", only embedded in mobile devices. They are tricky to manufacture with the same problems as making watches.
The Small Form Factor Committee never specified a standard, especially for thickness, of these drives.
There have been previous credible attempts at micro-minature HDD's: around 2000, IBM built the largest capacity "Compact Flash" drive available. It was a hard disk. While they were both highest capacity and best price/MB, they weren't popular with working Professional Photographers - they were too fragile... One of the extreme advantages of solid-state memory, like "Flash", is its robustness, especially when turned off. If you keep static electricity away from them, they can be nearly indestructible. The data will fade away ("Flash" EPROM is not permanent) long before they'll succumb to mechanical damage...
But within a couple of years the market collapsed because real Flash memory overtook them in capacity, price/MB and transfer rate.
Not long after RAID-5 was proposed in 1989, there was a good academic paper that suggested by 2000 we'd have a new type of storage: many single platter 1 inch drives soldered onto boards.
The economics of very small form-factor disk drives turned out never to be compelling.
If nobody is building the drives in volume, the price cannot be competitive with substitutes, like Flash for smaller units and 2.5" and 3.5" drives for larger units.
If there is no demand for a product, then no manufacturer will invest in the R&D and manufacturing facilities to ramp-up to volume production.
It sounds like a chicken-and-egg problem: nobody builds small drives so nobody designs products based on them so there is no reason to build small drives.
But that's not the whole story: drive manufacturers can do the Maths and know their production economics and capabilities very well.
If they thought they could produce rugged, small drives that were cheaper and higher-capacity compared to Flash, then one of them would've tried it. If they'd have made a profit, everyone would've followed, just like the 5.25 inch to 3.5 inch and 3.5 inch to 2.5 inch changeovers.
The stumbling block is per-device manufacturing cost.
Disks are complex mechanical devices, assembled individually to very fine tolerances. Their production costs are dominated by that, not raw materials and the process doesn't scale well with volume. While disk capacity has doubled every year for 15 years, the minimum unit price has either remained the same or risen.
Very small format drives, even in high volume, would, per unit, cost a sizeable fraction of 2.5" or 3.5" drives.
Compact Flash chips, whilst small capacity (1-32Gb) compared to even 2.5 inch drives (1000Gb), are cents per chip to produce and the technology to scale volume production of them is very well known and researched, but more importantly lends itself to scaling up.
Flash current sells for $1-$10/Gb and 32Gb is $10-20 retail, or less. SSD's are more expensive per GB than SD cards and USB Flash memory devices for a number of reasons related to speed, reliability/durability and wear-rate.
No 2.5" drive can be smaller than mid-capacity Flash memory or SSD: no user would buy one.
Or, the smallest 2.5" drives you can sell for $50-$60 are 250GB, or $0.20/GB.
If you could make a very small format disk drive for as little as $30 retail, it has to compete with Flash.
It'd have to be over 128GB to sell, or at least half the capacity of a small 2.5 inch drive or one-eight the size of high-capacity 2.5 inch drives.
Which gives a smallest economic form-factor of 1.25 inch, this year.
Next year, when Flash memory reduces another 30%, it's marginal and the year after, when Flash cost/GB has halved, completely uneconomic. A two year product life is well below the payback period.
There haven't been any discoveries or developments in magnetic disks that will change these economies within 10 years: we won't ever see high volume production of computer drives smaller than 2.5 inch.
Drive Dimensions:
2.5": 70mm x 102mm x 9mm [thickness varies, 7mm to 12.7mm. 15mm for 'enterprise']
3.5": 102mm x 147mm x 26.1mm [std "1-inch" thickness]
Sources:
[http://www.sffcommittee.com/ie/index.html]
[ftp://ftp.seagate.com/sff/8000_PRJ.HTM]
[ftp://ftp.seagate.com/sff/SFF-8200.PDF] 2.5"
[ftp://ftp.seagate.com/sff/SFF-8300.PDF] 3.5"
2012/12/26
Content: What's wrong with the Wikipedia Knowledge Model
The Register had a recent piece on Wikipedia: they're rolling in cash and the lucky few are enjoying that gravy train. Talking about this led to a discussion on the strengths and failings of the Wikipedia Content Model vs Classical Encyclopaedias, like Britannica.
Wikipedia has a simplistic Model of Knowledge: There is But One Truth.
If you are an engineer or a programmer, then this is as axiomatic as binary data and logic: true/false, 0/1, just one correct answer to every equation or calculation/test, there is but one truth.
Which is exactly where Wikipedia excels: if you need to look up a technical topic, especially in computing/communications and some engineering, where there is a well defined specification, then you find very good articles, often concise, complete and well explained.
But this is at best an undergraduate view of engineering: incomplete, naive, simplistic and completely without nuance. It's deeply wrong and misleading.
What does Encyclopaedia Britannica provide?
Knowing the whole story, what works, whats been tried, whats been discarded - and why, is as important as knowing the current best theory. And that's for objective fields of knowledge: 'truth' isn't fixed and immutable, but constantly and unpredictably evolving and changing.
The proof of this is the 1902 statement by the newly appointed Commissioner of Patents in the US:
For more subjective fields, the 'soft sciences', even history and philosophy, the many viewpoints approach of science is vitally important: the discourse is more important than "the" answer.
Or fields requiring judgement, in answering questions about "best", ethics or belief and emotions: the stuff of real life.
Within this Many Theories and Viewpoints model of knowledge, articles with single identified authors are important. Readers may wish to read more by the author or disagree with their viewpoint and avoid their writing.
Contributions from Domain Experts in Encyclopaedias offer the same promise as Undergraduate courses for professionals:
To evolve, grow and thrive, Wikipedia needs to embrace single identified authorship, multiple competing views on the same subject and good histories of the subject, reflecting the cut-and-thrust of all lively, developing areas of academic debate.
For Wikipedia to be more than the naive "font of all undergraduate wisdom", it has to embrace the complex, many faceted view of knowledge and discourse in world of graduates and researchers.
Wikipedia has a simplistic Model of Knowledge: There is But One Truth.
If you are an engineer or a programmer, then this is as axiomatic as binary data and logic: true/false, 0/1, just one correct answer to every equation or calculation/test, there is but one truth.
Which is exactly where Wikipedia excels: if you need to look up a technical topic, especially in computing/communications and some engineering, where there is a well defined specification, then you find very good articles, often concise, complete and well explained.
But this is at best an undergraduate view of engineering: incomplete, naive, simplistic and completely without nuance. It's deeply wrong and misleading.
What does Encyclopaedia Britannica provide?
Experts. With a comprehensive knowledge of the field, its history, the current "State of the Art and Practice" and the currently accepted theories with competing ideas and approaches to problems at 'the edge'. They understand nuance and the many theories nature of the development of science. But more importantly, they bring judgement and an ability to explain their field to others.Even in objective technical fields, like computing and electronic engineering, there are many competing theories about the field, each with their benefits and limitations, all argued for strongly by proponents and all, even those appearing 'weak' or later proven wrong or limited, offer insight and understanding.
Knowing the whole story, what works, whats been tried, whats been discarded - and why, is as important as knowing the current best theory. And that's for objective fields of knowledge: 'truth' isn't fixed and immutable, but constantly and unpredictably evolving and changing.
The proof of this is the 1902 statement by the newly appointed Commissioner of Patents in the US:
In my opinion, all previous advances in the various lines of invention will appear totally insignificant when compared with those which the present century will witness. I almost wish that I might live my life over again to see the wonders which are at the threshold.He was proven right, beyond his wildest dreams... The nature of Science is change, "truth" evolves over time.
For more subjective fields, the 'soft sciences', even history and philosophy, the many viewpoints approach of science is vitally important: the discourse is more important than "the" answer.
Or fields requiring judgement, in answering questions about "best", ethics or belief and emotions: the stuff of real life.
Within this Many Theories and Viewpoints model of knowledge, articles with single identified authors are important. Readers may wish to read more by the author or disagree with their viewpoint and avoid their writing.
Contributions from Domain Experts in Encyclopaedias offer the same promise as Undergraduate courses for professionals:
Complete coverage of the field: an A-Z guide of the current state of the art, influenced by the experts viewpoint and approach.This is the weakness of the "autodidact", or the self-taught: they can easily miss large and important areas of a field. They don't know what they don't know, whilst a "good" undergraduate course carries the promise of knowing what you know and what you don't know: formal education is about removing the "Unknown Unknowns". The self-taught, without feedback from others, can never be certain they've learnt the whole field. [Because they aren't hampered by preconceptions, they can sometimes arrive at startling new answers, but mostly they fall into known fallacies and logic traps.]
To evolve, grow and thrive, Wikipedia needs to embrace single identified authorship, multiple competing views on the same subject and good histories of the subject, reflecting the cut-and-thrust of all lively, developing areas of academic debate.
For Wikipedia to be more than the naive "font of all undergraduate wisdom", it has to embrace the complex, many faceted view of knowledge and discourse in world of graduates and researchers.
2012/12/19
Recruiting FAIL: The Non-Response of ITCRA.
I'm not impressed with the ITCRA grievance process.
As a mere 'candidate', they were happy to accept a 'grievance' from me, using that term, to communicate with me on the matter over many months and to put me to some trouble to provide them 'evidence'. When I raised concerns about maintaining the confidentiality of my private emails, they were brushed aside: Our Way or the Highway was the message.
After too many months, today I finally have a letter saying the matter is 'resolved' and now closed.
I am none the wiser about the facts of my complaints or if ITCRA viewed any/all/some of them as proven.
Did they think I was a reliable witness and weigh my evidence highly or not? I've No Idea.
ITCRA was also unhappy that I should dare to write-up a DEIDENTIFIED version of the story.
As an organisation they seem to have difficulty with the notions of Freedom of Speech, Open and Transparent Governance Processes and Natural Justice.
Nor did anyone have the decency to offer me an apology.
From that, do I infer they found NO FAULT on the part of the Agency and Agent? That I've been a jerk, wasting their time and making a nuisance of myself? I've No Idea.
If anyone has a problem with an ITCRA Member Company, my advice now is:
Don't waste your time.They'll only jerk you aroud, waste your time and leave you very unsatisfied.
Previous posts on the matter:
http://stevej-on-it.blogspot.com/2012/09/recruiting-fail-how-to-foul-up-employee.html
http://stevej-on-it.blogspot.com/2012/09/recruiting-fail-part-3-itcra-complaint.html
DRAFT Complaint: 10-Sept-2012.
Mr. AAA BBB,
ITCRA Member Company Representative
XXX Recruitment
YYY Street
Melbourne VIC 3000
Dear AAA,
I am in receipt of a grievance lodged by a candidate Mr. Steve Jenkin, against a XXX consultant Mr. ZZZ ZZZ. He has certified that the information provided is correct to the best of his knowledge and that he has not provided any false or misleading claims against another company or individual and has provided additional email evidence to support the claims made. In summary the issues are:
Background (commencing in August)
• The issue is focused on a *permanent* position for a senior IT staffer and Mr Jenkin was required to move interstate.
• Agency approached Mr Jenkin, no job application ever made by Mr Jenkin.
• Job never advertised with a start date, no immediacy ever stated. Comment was made that it was expected to take 2 months to fill position [by October]
Grievances
• Misleading statements:
1. Confused an email from consultant (ZZ) to work seeker (SJ) with a written offer from the Client. Insisted this was a "Job Offer ", implying a binding contract.
2. Promised help finding accommodation for relocating interstate and none was provided. Having local accommodation was always a condition of accepting the position.
• Harassment or cyber-stalking:
1. One incident of a dozen calls/texts in 30mins by (ZZ)
2. (SJ) asked, in an email, to desist. (ZZ) repeated again later with more very inappropriate and abusive statements.
• Privacy Act breach.
1. (ZZ) used referee contact details for purposes data not supplied for. When work seeker (SJ) would not answer consultant’s (ZZ) calls, consultant (ZZ) rang referee to complain and spoke inappropriately.
• Additional Issues
1. When SJ had failed to receive a contract 10 days from first proposed start date, informed ZZ of inability to start due to personal circumstances. ZZ then harassed and browbeat SJ and seriously overstepped by continuing to demand exactly what the personal circumstances were. This was justified by saying that there was a need to explain to the Client.
2. Misspelt SJ name on contract.
3. ZZ demanded a written apology from SJ to Client for pointing this out.
4. ZZ Sent 7 emails in 15 minute period informing work SJ of Job Offer. ZZ Kept issuing recall emails for incorrect offers sent.
5. ZZ commented that his manager was continually chasing him to comply with company requirements and document all communications.
6. SJ requested 3 times in email that ZZ ask Client if 9-day fortnight [with RDO] would be acceptable during first 3 months while transitioning to Sydney. ZZ never asked Client [confirmed]. Client was happy to comply when asked by SJ.
7. ZZ deliberately misled SJ by stating the job was full-time only and RDO’s were not possible.
Formal Letter of Response: 19-Dec-2012
Mr Steve Jenkin,
Dear Steve,,
The ITCRA Board of Directors has asked me to write and thank you for raising the professional practice matter against ZZZ ZZZ of XXX Recruitment. The complaints process allows us, as an Association, to address issues and to ensure that recruitment practices achieve best practice benchmarks.
The Conduct Committee reviewed the evidence provided by both parties and asked further questions of XXX Recruitment, as the Member of ITCRA. The findings and recommendations of the Conduct Committee were discussed by the ITRCRA Directors and the following outcomes have resulted:
• XXX Recruitment were required to agree to a number of actions as a result of the Committee's recommendations and these have been committed to, with some already completed and assessed by an external quality auditor.
• The ITCRA Directors accepted the Committee's findings and the undertakings by XXX with respect to process review and consultant training.
• The ITCRA Directors raised concerns with respect to the discussions of this matter in the public domain via your blog as this could have jeopardized the process if the Member company felt the Committee had been unduly influenced prior to the matter being heard.
The purpose of the ITCR's Code of Conduct to provide a channel for complaints to be addressed and to provide improvement strategies for professional and business conduct of Members.
As explained to yo, the resolution of the matter was between ITRCA and the Member company and, as such, is confidential and cannot be made public - although the content can be used as a case study, with anonymity, for industry improvement. You would have the right to review any such case study as protection of your rights is also a priority.
The Directors wish you well in your future endeavours and hope that your experience with recruiters, in the future, is not as frustrating.
Have an excellent festive season,
Yours sincerely,
.... CEO
Email to President of ITCRA on their unsatisfactory response.
To: Russell MacDonald, President ITCRA
Subject: ITRCA complaint against XXX
Date: Wed, 19 Dec 2012 13:10:36 +1100
Russell,
After many months of waiting, today I finally received a letter telling me my complaint against XXX Recruiting on multiple grounds had been resolved.
The letter is best described as "content free".
How was my complaint resolved? I've no idea, just that you've closed the book on it.
Nothing in this process has answered my complaints, nor told me what, if anything, XXX had done wrong, or if any of their malfeasance *I* perceived was supported or not.
All I can gather is they were given a good talking to and they promised not to get caught doing "it" again.
I'm a party to these proceedings, not a third party or 'the public':
these actions were visited *upon me* and were personally quite devastating and financially disastrous for me AND I personally raised the issue to get some satisfaction from you.
Releasing to me matters that *I* raised, even under a Confidentiality Agreement, doesn't involve any abuse of process or publicly exposes anyone. I already know the names of the players, I was one of them.
If you knew *all along* that I would never be told the outcome of my complaint WHY DIDN'T YOU JUST SAY THAT in September???
That would have been reasonable, but your organisation has jerked me around for months on end...
That's beyond inconsiderate: it's deliberate and intentional misleading behaviour.
At the very least, I would've expected a response to the complaint I raised that comprised two parts:
- the findings of fact on each individual issue/point raised.
i.e. "we found a breach of the privacy act, but not harassment"
Note: I am NOT party to the internal actions, remedies and disciplinary process.
- if the Agency, or their agent, was found to have acted in Bad Faith or outside acceptable limits in your Professional Code, then an apology to me, at least, is in order.
Where is a letter to me from the management of XXX Recruiting saying "We're sorry, we've looked to fixing things"?????
I'm not just disappointed in the process and this unsatisfactory result, but that you don't understand the concepts behind of Natural Justice. If you asked me to provide a *lot* of personal information as evidence as part of your process, so why cannot I know the determinations you made?
*That* is the reason I approached you with a complaint: to have you make a determination and tell me what it was.
I wish that you:
- write me a response detailed the determination, not actions taken, on each point of complaint I made.
- direct XXX Recruitment to write (or phone) an appropriate formal apology to me.
regards
steve jenkin
2012/12/13
Security: The Massive hole in the PCEHR system
In the last few days, three computer security stories have hit the news:
- At ADFA, hacking of 10,000 staff and student identity details.
- Credit-Card hacking of small Australian retailers by a Romanian ring [Radio National B'fast with AusCERT]
- A Gold Coast Medical Centre had its data encrypted and held to ransom by 'Russians' [Radio National B'fast]
These may seem small, incidental stories, but they are signs of something much darker. At the end of 2004 the Hackers Turned Pro [and a 2007 piece]: now they're after the money, not publicity nor headlines. In fact, rather the reverse, like special tactical units, military or police, they now want to go completely undetected - to avoid detection, to be completely stealthy.
2012/11/26
NBN: The Economics of FTTH vs FTTN
Do you know a Bargain when you see one??
Is either NBN Policy proposal offering a bargain or the opposite, a "lemon"?
Is either NBN Policy proposal offering a bargain or the opposite, a "lemon"?
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