Future of Big Iron servers and Expensive Databases

This article came across a list, what follows was my response.

IBM and Oracle Present Rival Chips for 'big Iron' Servers

Wonderful to see the Dinosaurs still dukeing it out.

The eDRAM from IBM for the L3 cache is a big move. Like when they figured out how to use Copper in chips and reduced power use, hence heat production significantly.

I suspect we're seeing a replay of the late 1980's demise of mainframes... Not fast, not universal, not complete, but 90+% of the business goes away, killing weak supporting businesses.

Everyone but IBM's System Z and Unisys ClearPath went away - or into emulation.
[Clearpath = emulation on Xeon of 2200 & B-series]

In my view, two forces have converged to push these high-end niche processors into irrelevance:

• Patterson's Brick Wall (2006):
• Power Wall + Memory Wall + ILP Wall = Brick Wall
• "infinite" IO/Sec and virtual-RAM with PCI-SSD. eg Fusion-IO

With cheap PCI-SSD by the Terabyte, the majority of Apps/enterprises don't need:

• Big Iron Databases
• Big Iron Storage Arrays and supporting SAN's
• Big Iron multi-chip fast uniprocessing cores.

A lot of the complexity of Big Iron DB's (like Oracle) is aimed at achieving "speed" in the face of low-performing HDD's... [slow IO/sec, not streaming throughput]

If the whole of a relational DB (tables) fits in memory (or fast Virtual memory), then doesn't the DB become very simple, modulo ACID tests and writing "commits" to persistent, high-reliability storage?

Which means we might start seeing a bunch of in-memory DB's, like NoSQL, but for normal-sized DB's (1-5Gb), not large collections.

There's an economic rule on product substitution that led to the relatively quick decline in IBM mainframe sales:

• when the capital expenditure on a substitute is less than the operational costs of the current system, barriers to adoption are removed.
• capital costs are 'sunk' and can't be recovered.
• To realise savings, you have to wait for the next upgrade or refresh cycle.
• But the conversion costs have to be factored in, and incumbent vendors take care to price upgrades, even "forklift upgrades" (complete replacement) under the total cost of moving to a new solution. [Used to advantage by Tier 1 Storage Array vendors currently].
• But Operational Costs, like maintenance charges, aren't 'sunk'.
• They are due every year.
• When a whole system is less than recurrent costs, businesses can quickly and easily justify the change.
• They write-off the CapEx for the old equipment and wheel it out the door.
• Usually "Big Iron" hardware has zero residual value, even when 2 years old.
• When the equipment is on the cusp of being obsolescent, it is worse.
• Or they have to figure out how to break the lease.
• Unless they went into debt to fund the CapEx, they can move away quickly.

Hardware maintenance fees are typically 15-20% of capital costs.
Whilst Oracle licensing costs are beyond me (I don't track them) - but are becoming a major component of Enterprise Computing costs.

How many "little" DB applications need to succeed with two low-cost ($10k) servers, 3 SATA drives each in simple RAID and 1 Fusion-IO board, run as H/A with an in-memory DB?

If organisations can build a complete, high-performance, high-availability, simple-admin solution for $20-$30k per group of DB's, they can afford to deploy them immediately based on direct maintenance savings.

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Follow-up comment:

Intel are looking over their shoulder at becoming dinosaurs. Maybe I won't live to see it, but ARM servers could very well do in the x86_64.
Ed

And so they should for most general purpose computing.

I remember seeing John Mashey of MIPS talk in 1988 where he plotted CPU speed for each of ECL, bipolar and CMOS technologies. ECL had been overtaken by then, bipolar was due to lose the lead within a few years.
The 486 in 1991 was a complete system-on-a-chip and changed the landscape.

It answers the question "Where did all the supercomputers go?"
A: Inside Intel. [and Power and SPARC. possibly Z series]

The Intel chips seek "maximum performance" - they pull all the tricks that super-computer designs used, and its is that technology that is approaching Pattersons' "Brick Wall" [heat, memory, ILP]

And as an aside, GPU's are filling the "vector processor" niche of CDC and Cray.

ARM has pursued a very different strategy, more based around 'efficiency': MIPS/Watt

So, while I agree with you, I think the situation is nuanced.

ARM processors are obvious choices for low-power and mobile/battery devices.
Because of design simplicity (small PSU, no CPU-fan) and smaller size, they'll become more interesting for low-end PC's, especially portable devices.

There is a company, Calxeda, now producing high-density ARM boards for servers.
They are hoping to leverage MIPS/Watt for highly-parallelisable loads, like web-servers.

But I can't see anyone taking on Intel soon in the supercomputer-on-a-chip market.
It's not just servers, especially for large DB's, but workstations and 'performance' laptops.

The problem with that evolution of the market for Intel is ARM taking sales from multiple market segments. Seeing that Winders-8 will run on ARM, we might see the end of WinTel for low-end & mid-tier laptops.

As a company, can Intel survive such a radical change in demand for its major product line?
Will its work on MLC flash fill the financial void?

I've no idea how that will go.
But like you said, ARM is going to shake up even the Intel server market.

The "secret sauce" that the ARM architecture has is that it's a licensed design.
Although chip design companies might not own or be able to access chip FABs within 2 or 3 design cycles of Intel, they can produce highly optimised and use-case targeted chips.

Which Intel can't do. They are focussed on the bleeding edge of CPU performance and FAB design.

Manufacturers like Apple/A5 and Calxeda can produced ARM-based designs that can outperform Intel-based systems by an order-of-magnitude on non-MIPs metrics.

As Apple has shown, there are very big markets where raw MIPs isn't the "figure of merit" in designs.

A new inflection point? Definitive Commodity Server Organisation/Design Rules

Summary:

For the delivery of general purpose and wide-scale Compute/Internet Services there now seems to be a definitive hardware organisation for servers, typified by the E-bay "pod" contract.

For decades there have been well documented "Design Rules" for producing Silicon devices using specific technologies/fabrication techniques. This is an attempt to capture some rules for current server farms. [Update 06-Nov-11: "Design Rules" are important: Patterson in a Sept. 1995 Scientific American article notes that the adoption of a quantitative design approach in the 1980's led to an improvement in microprocessor speedup from 35%pa to 55%pa. After a decade, processors were 3 times faster than forecast.]

Commodity Servers have exactly three possible CPU configurations, based on "scale-up" factors:

• single CPU, with no coupling/coherency between App instances. e.g. pure static web-server.
• dual CPU, with moderate coupling/coherency. e.g. web-servers with dynamic content from local databases. [LAMP-style].
• multi-CPU, with high coupling/coherency. e.g. "Enterprise" databases with complex queries.

If you're not running your Applications and Databases in Virtual Machines, why not?
[Update 06-Nov-11: Because Oracle insists some feature sets must run on raw hardware. Sometimes vendors won't support your (preferred) VM solution.]

VM products are close to free and offer incontestable Admin and Management advantages, like 'teleportation' or live-migration of running instances and local storage.

There is a special non-VM case: cloned physical servers. This is how I'd run a mid-sized or large web-farm.
This requires careful design, a substantial toolset, competent Admins and a resilient Network design. Layer 4-7 switches are mandatory in this environment.

There are 3 system components of interest:

• The base Platform: CPU, RAM, motherboard, interfaces, etc
• Local high-speed persistent storage. i.e. SSD's in a RAID configuration.
• Large-scale common storage. Network attached storage with filesystem, not block-level, access.

Note that complex, expensive SAN's and their associated disk-arrays are no longer economic. Any speed advantage is dissolved by locally attached SSD's, leaving only complexity, resilience/recovery issues and price.
Consequentially, "Fibre Channel over Ethernet" with its inherent contradictions and problems, is unnecessary.

Designing individual service configurations  can be broken down into steps:

• select the appropriate CPU config per service component
• specify the size/performance of local SSD per CPU-type.
• architect the supporting network(s)
• specify common network storage elements and rate of storage consumption/growth.

Capacity Planning and Performance Analysis is mandatory in this world.

As a professional, you're looking to provide "bang-for-buck" for someone else who's writing the cheques. Over-dimensioning is as much a 'sin' as running out of capacity. Nobody ever got fired for spending just enough, hence maximising profits.

Getting it right as often as possible is the central professional engineering problem.
Followed by, limiting the impact of Faults, Failures and Errors - including under-capacity.

The quintessential advantage to professionals in developing standard, reproducible designs is the flexibility to respond to unanticipated load/demands and the speed with which new equipment can be brought on-line, and the converse, retired and removed.

Security architectures and choice of O/S + Cloud management software is outside the scope of this piece.

There are many multi-processing architectures, each best suited to particular workloads.
They are outside the scope of this piece, but locally attached GPU's are about to become standard options.
Most servers will acquire what were known as vector processors and applications using this capacity will start to become common. This trend may need their own Design Rule(s).

Different, though potentially similar design rules apply for small to mid-size Beowulf clusters, depending on their workload and cost constraints.
Large-scale or high-performance compute clusters or storage farms, such as the IBM 120 Petabyte system, need careful design by experienced specialists. With any technology, "pushing the envelope" requires special attention by the best people you have,  to even have a chance of success.

Not unsurprisingly, this organisation looks a lot like the current fad, "Cloud Computing" and the last fad, "Services Oriented Architecture".

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Google and Amazon dominated their industry segments partly because they figured out the technical side of their business early on. They understood how to design and deploy datacentres suitable for their workload, how to manage Performance and balance Capacity and Cost.

Their "workloads", and hence server designs, are very different:

• Google serves pure web-pages, with almost no coupling/communication between servers.
• Amazon has front-end web-servers is backed by complex database systems.

Dell is now selling a range of "Cloud Servers" purportedly based on the systems they supply to large Internet companies.

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