Others are starting to forecast the potential for a collapse and "Microsoft 2012 == IBM 1990".
Steve Jobs Was Right: Google IS Turning Into Microsoft
(reminding us that Microsoft has tried to get into TV, cable, music and a bunch of other things)
(Larry Pages asked Steve Jobs for advice.)
Jobs told him to focus on fewer things and do them really well.
Jobs later recounted the conversation to his biographer Walter Isaacson.
"Figure out what Google wants to be when it grows up. It's now all over the map. What are the five products you want to focus on? Get rid of the rest because they're dragging you down. They're turning you into Microsoft"
- Search is like Windows: an 800-pound gorilla
- Display advertising is like Office: piggybacking on success
- Android is like Xbox: a surprise success in a brand new business area (but not a big money maker)
- Google+ is like Bing: a reaction to a fearsome new competitor
- Google Music is like Zune: a me-too attempt to compete with Apple
- Google Apps is like SQL Server: a cheap alternative that nobody pays much attention to...yet
- Chrome is like Internet Explorer: a giveaway that pushes the company's agenda on the Web
- Google TV is like WebTV: an attempt to make TV more like the Internet
- The Kansas City Fiber experiment is like Microsoft's huge cable investments in the 1990s
- Google is buying companies like crazy, just like Microsoft used to do
So maybe Steve Jobs was right. So what?STEVE BALLMER'S NIGHTMARE: How Microsoft's Business Actually Could Collapse
Jobs meant the Microsoft crack as an insult, but maybe it's not so bad.
But it's still immensely profitable, garners $70 billion a year in sales, and is growing around 10% per year.
Nobody can stay on top forever, but if Google wants to have a long ride, it could do worse than being like Microsoft.
- The iPad eats the consumer PC market.
- Employees gradually switch away from using Windows PCs for work.
- Windows 8 fails to stop the iPad.
- Loyal developers start to leave the Microsoft platform.
- Windows Phone gets no traction despite the Nokia deal and RIM's collapse.
- Office loses relevance.
- Microsoft's other business applications start to erode.
- The platform business collapses.
- The Xbox was never going to make up the slack, and Microsoft can no longer afford to keep investing in it.
- Microsoft suffers a huge quarterly loss. Ballmer retires to play golf.